As the state election in Brandenburg approaches, recent polls indicate a tight race between the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD). The AfD holds a slight lead with 29% compared to the SPD's 26%, according to surveys conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF and Infratest dimap for ARD.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trails behind with around 15-16%, followed by the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) at 13-14%. Smaller parties like the Greens, the Left, and the Free Voters are hovering around the critical 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament.
However, they could still gain representation through the so-called basic mandate clause if they win at least one direct seat. The SPD, led by Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, has governed Brandenburg since 1990, currently in coalition with the CDU and the Greens.
Woidke has announced his intention to step down if the SPD fails to secure the top position. In a direct vote for Prime Minister, Woidke remains the preferred candidate, with 50-55% support among respondents.
Despite the AfD’s lead, many voters still favor the SPD to lead the next government. This election is crucial for the SPD's future in Brandenburg, as well as for the broader political landscape in Germany, with the AfD's rise being closely monitored.
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