The 2024 US presidential election is showing a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with polls indicating a neck-and-neck competition. The campaign has been shaped by events such as an attack on Trump, Harris taking over the campaign, resulting enthusiasm among Democrats, the indirect electoral process in the US, Fivethirtyeight as a data source with weighting methodology, and a botched TV debate by Joe Biden.
The graphic displays the course of the poll results since March 2024. Additionally, political scientist Allan Lichtman, known for accurate election predictions, forecasts a victory for Harris based on his 13-key prediction model. Lichtman appeals to voters to exercise their right to vote.
According to Lichtman's model, Harris leads with 8 keys against Trump's 3, leaving Trump with little room to change the outcome. Additionally, as the debate approaches, the fight to define Kamala Harris will shape the contest, as voter views of Harris have improved while Trump's have hardened.
The election campaign has been filled with dramatic events, including Trump's announcement of candidacy, Biden's withdrawal, Trump's conviction, Biden's career-ending TV appearance, an assassination attempt on Trump, and Harris becoming the new Democratic candidate.
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