Ukrainian troops are advancing into Russian territory, capturing territory, destroying Russian jets, and taking prisoners. Russia is evacuating thousands of people from the Kursk region and building trenches to halt the advance.
Ukraine's incursion aims to gain leverage in future peace talks and protect against long-range strikes. Russia is concerned about Ukraine's logistics chains and struggles to mount a quick counterattack.
The fighting in Kursk is expected to continue for weeks, if not months or years. The incursion has shown that crossing Russian 'red lines' leading to nuclear escalation is a myth.
Ukraine's battle-hardened military remains formidable, as Putin is discovering. The timing of the incursion is salient, as a possible second term for former President Trump could pressure Ukraine into negotiations.
The incursion has complicated Moscow's offensive plans and forced Russia to evacuate civilians. Ukraine is treating Russian civilians differently than Russia treats Ukrainians in occupied territory, aiming to create a buffer zone and provide aid.
The local Russian population is shocked by the Ukrainian advance and distrusts official sources. Ukraine's incursion aims to divert Russian troops, seize territory as a bargaining chip, and demonstrate improved warfare skills.
Russia faces a genuine dilemma and is struggling to defend its territory.
