Investors are hedging against concerns over the US presidential election, with Joseph Biden's withdrawal and Kamala Harris' potential nomination as the Democratic candidate. The Cboe Volatility Index surged as stocks fell, but has since slipped.
Positioning in the rates market is shifting to gauge the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The 'Trump steepener trade' has unwound, indicating the Treasuries curve is more likely to be driven by Fed policy than election odds.
Investors are watching whether earnings from Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. can support valuations, while also monitoring the Secured Overnight Financing Rate for policy expectations. According to Stuart Kaiser of Citigroup and Scott Nations of Nations Indexes, volatility pricing and options positioning reflect these market dynamics, including pressure on S&P 500 call options.
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